The Cards ranked a mediocre 16th this year in park-adjusted offense and significantly worse in runs scored, tied for 23rd in the majors. The reasons? A massive drop in production with runners in scoring position and the lowest home run total in the National League. And yet, the Cards’ seven homers in the NLDS were the most ever by a team that had the fewest homers in its league during the regular season, and their lefties hit five homers off Dodgers lefties, the second most by lefties off lefties in a postseason series.

So is that just bonkers randomness? Or did the Cards underachieve in the regular season?

The two youngest members of the lineup could be the ones to tell us. Twenty-three-year-old rookie second baseman Kolten Wong batted a lousy .228/.282/.304 before hitting the disabled list with a shoulder injury in late June. Since his return, he’s struggled to get on base, but has cranked up the power, belting 11 homers in his final 60 starts of the season, and launching the game-winning blast in Game 3 of the NLDS. Meanwhile, 26-year-old Matt Adams hit .325 but with just three long balls in 52 games before hitting the DL with a calf injury at the end of May. After his June 13 return, Big City batted .267 but with 12 homers and 18 doubles in 333 at-bats, and he boasts the signature moment of the playoffs so far: a series-clinching three-run bomb off Clayton Kershaw. Normally we try not to make too much of selective endpoints like these. But in Wong you’ve got a rookie who might now just be coming into his own as he’s gained experience and recovered from a bum shoulder; Adams’s minor league and early major league résumés (and colossal size) suggest he’s more of a power threat than he showed for a good chunk of this season.

As for the Giants? Left field remains completely up in the air for San Francisco, only in this round, there’s an added twist: Mike Morse is back. The 6-foot-5, 245-pound behemoth got off to a huge start this year, then stopped hitting at all, leaving his team with one of the least-skilled defensive outfielders in the game and no offense to go with it. Then he got hurt. Now that he’s returned, San Francisco must figure out what to do with a player who led the Giants in Isolated Power but also has just two at-bats since the end of August to go along with that miserable (and very un-Giants-like) defense.

Speaking of defense, keep an eye on both teams’ catchers. We already know about Yadier Molina’s brilliance, both in his ability to do quantifiable things like throw out runners and the secret sauce stuff that his supporters claim make him one of the most — if not the most — valuable players in the National League. But don’t sleep on Buster Posey, who’s actually won an MVP award. While most of Posey’s accolades come from his robust offense as a catcher, he’s also one of the best pitch-framers in baseball. FanGraphs writer August Fagerstrom wrote a fascinating article Monday criticizing NLDS Game 2 plate umpire Vic Carapazza for his erratic strike zone. And while the since-ousted Nats probably have a legitimate beef with Carapazza, something else becomes evident as you flip through the article’s multiple instructive GIFs: Posey outshone his Washington catching counterpart, Wilson Ramos, at stealing strikes, which is a big part of the reason San Francisco’s still playing.

Benches/Bullpens

The addition of Morse swings the bench advantage to the Giants, since the Cardinals don’t have anyone with that kind of pop.⁴ Meanwhile, both teams will run out bullpens that feature multiple quality options, albeit no one of the unhittable Dellin Betances/Craig Kimbrel ilk. Both managers can and will play the lefty-righty matchup game as the situation warrants.

Still, the overall edge here goes to the Giants, because of Bruce Bochy. Though both Bochy and Mike Matheny have navigated the rigors of playoff baseball before, Bochy has a knack for making the right decisions at the right time, and is less driven by The Book than Matheny can be, to the San Francisco skipper’s credit. Players almost always affect games far more than managers do, and teams can and do win games all the time in spite of suboptimal decision-making — just ask any Royals fan. But if one of these games comes down to The Other Guys, I’d favor the Giants.

The Call

It’s not an easy one. These teams share a lot of similarities, from contact hitting to lack of base stealers, all-world catchers to all-world playoff performances — and one of them is about to play in its third World Series in five years. Honestly, if Wainwright were 100 percent rather than the guy with a gimpy elbow coming off a six-run drubbing against the Dodgers, this would more or less come down to a coin flip.

But Wainwright’s questionable status tilts the series in San Francisco’s favor. In a battle between two of baseball’s model franchises, I’m saying Giants in six.

ESPN Stats & Info provided research assistance for this article.

This article has been updated to adjust the order of the Giants’ projected NLCS rotation and correct a reference to Madison Bumgarner’s Game 1 availability.