Once upon a time, it was easy for a working actress to pad her résumé with a Razzie for Worst Supporting Actress. Just pick a terrible script, play your wafer-thin girlfriend/wife/mom/coworker role as woodenly as possible, and then walk away with the gold(-painted raspberry). Hell, Faye Dunaway won a Razzie in 1993 for The Temp, and Estelle Getty in 1992 for Stop! Or My Mom Will Shoot.

Then came Madonna and the reign of the superhotties. The Worst Supporting Actress Razzie stopped rewarding bad performances in terrible movies and started rewarding the latest flash-in-the-pan babe who looks good on a press release. So awards started going to, yes, Madonna, Estella Warren, Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Carmen Electra — nonactors all, for whom a Razzie is worth little more than a shrug. They don’t understand, or care, that a Golden Raspberry is a feather in an actor’s cap.

Let’s give the Razzies back to the real actresses! The awards the past two years for Sienna Miller and Jessica Alba give us hope. We’ll see if this coming January 23 the Razzies continue the trend.

The Bottom Five

In order of certainty.

Blake Lively, Green Lantern
A starlet with so-so acting abilities and a rack that inspires slideshows. The worst superhero movie of the summer. She’s a lock!

Christina Ricci, Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star
We had her listed in Worst Actress but given that she barely appears in the trailer for this horrifying-looking movie, it might be safer to move her to this category.

Katy Perry, The Smurfs
Unlike the snootier Oscars, the Razzies have never been afraid of voice or mocap performances; in fact, in 1999, Ahmed Best won Worst Supporting Actor for the role of Jar-Jar Binks. So even though it’s just her voice as Smurfette, we think Perry’s got a great shot at being this year’s “singer” who “acts.”

Katie Holmes, Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark and Jack & Jill
Again, a Worst Actress contender as well, but if her agents campaign for her in this category she might have a better shot.

Freida Pinto, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
A well-loved movie and a hit besides! But if there’s one thing that humans and apes can agree on, it’s that Freida Pinto does essentially nothing with her (admittedly thankless) role.

The Runners-Up

Waiting in the wings are five actresses who appeared in spring and summer movies, all crossing their fingers that Razzie voters will remember them in January.

Penelope Cruz, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Remember this movie? It’s easy to forget what a dud it was, but we have a hunch that its inclusion on year-end Biggest Disappointment lists should garner it a few noms.

Greta Gerwig, Arthur
A fantastic actress in the right environment, Gerwig was tragically ill-suited for this misbegotten big-budget remake — but at least she might get a Razzie out of it!

Rose McGowan, Conan the Barbarian
That’s her under all that makeup! You can tell because of the screeching.

Winona Ryder, The Dilemma
The film came out in January, but she’s beloved enough that she might land a goodwill nod.

Olivia Wilde, Cowboys & Aliens
Lead or supporting? Supporting or lead? Not bad enough or totally bad enough?

The Wild Cards

Rosario Dawson, Zookeeper
Julianne Hough, Footloose
Leslie Mann, The Change-Up
Jayma Mays, The Smurfs
Lucy Punch, Bad Teacher

New This “Weak”

It’s a three-fer weekend, with a trio of movies coming out that seem to range from OK to not at all OK. But do they have Razzie heat? Our Idiot Brother, despite mixed reviews, seems unlikely to garner much support in light of other stupider-looking comedies coming down the pike. We’re worried that Colombiana might actually be awesome — Luc Besson! The guy who wrote Taken! — ruining the Razzie chances of gloriously named director Olivier Megaton. (Note: Supposedly he took his name due to his birthday, the anniversary of the Hiroshima A-bomb. Are you kidding, Olivier Megaton??) So we give the best chances to Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark, which despite its Guillermo Del Toro producing credit is getting mixed to negative reviews and features poor Katie Holmes, whose career is about to sustain some major Jack & Jill-related damage.

On the “Bore”-izon

Is there a Razzie for Most Hideous Prosthesis? Because if so, Nick Swardson’s teeth are gonna win it. We’ve mostly missed Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star (September 9), the tale of a goon from flyover country who moves to Hollywood to become a porn star, but we can ignore it no longer. We like the chances of Swardson, Ricci, and especially Don Johnson, playing the Burt Reynolds role and nearly visibly dripping with slime.

You know, YouTube commenters are often horrible just for the sake of horribleness, but they really come into their own when given fresh meat like this. Read ’em and weep, Sony Pictures.

Dan Kois is a veteran Razzie guru. His one-man cabaret show, Razzamajazz, will open in December at Maxwell Demille’s Cicada Club in downtown Los Angeles.

Previously: RazzieWatch: Worst-Director Showdown
RazzieWatch: Who Will Win Worst Actress?
RazzieWatch: Smurfs and Aliens
RazzieWatch: Who Will Win Worst Actor?

To comment on this story through Facebook, click here. Read more Hollywood Prospectus.

Contact us at hollywood@grantland.com.