The Official Grantland Super Bowl Odds: Helping You Spend Your Money Since, Well, Today

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The 2013 NFL season is finally here. That means it’s time to talk about football, fantasy, and of course, gambling. In an effort to reduce the inconsistent numbers floating around due to the existence of so many viable sportsbooks, we’re unveiling the Official Grantland Super Bowl Odds.

We considered multiple sportsbooks in assembling these odds, granting extra weight to the highest available payoff for each team. Our logic: If presented with a handful of sportsbook options, the average bettor will bet the best available number.

We’re also providing each team’s official win total, rounded to the nearest half-game, and giving proper consideration to lay price leans toward the over or the under. For example, you can find the Browns at over/under 7.5 wins, but you have to lay -160 on the under. With each half-game worth 50 cents on average, the Browns’ win total is more accurately 7 when rounded to the nearest half-game.

One interesting nugget to keep in mind as you review the following chart: The public bets a higher percentage of Super Bowl futures, while the sharps bet a higher percentage of season win totals. If the odds for a given team are not in sync, it’s likely a sign that the public and sharps disagree on that team. For example, the public seemingly likes the 49ers and Falcons more than the sharps do.

Here’s a look at the Super Bowl odds and season wins for each team, plus further breakdowns on prop bets, the hot seat, MVP odds and more.

Over/Under Trends

• Teams bet over the heaviest: Lions, Cardinals, Chiefs
• Teams bet under the heaviest: Vikings, 49ers, Patriots

AFC Playoff Projections Based on Win Totals

• AFC West: Broncos (home-field advantage)
• AFC East: Patriots (first-round bye)
• AFC South: Texans
• AFC North: Bengals
• First wild card: Steelers
• Second wild card: Chiefs
• Team closest to making the playoffs: Ravens

NFC Playoff Projections Based on Win Totals

• NFC West: Seahawks (home-field advantage)
• NFC North: Packers (first-round bye)
• NFC South: Saints
• NFC East: Cowboys
• First wild card: 49ers
• Second wild card: Falcons
• Team closest to making playoffs: Lions

Season-Long Props

[via William Hill]

• NFC West is +225 to win Super Bowl, AFC West +450; no other division is better than +600
• Four “minus money” favorites to win division: Patriots -400, Broncos -350, Texans -225, Packers -125
• Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards favored by 125 yards over Adrian Peterson’s rushing yards
• 5.5: over/under for 200-yard rushing games during regular season
• 7.5: over/under for 200-yard receiving games during regular season
• 61.5 yards: over/under for longest field goal made during regular season
• 93.5 yards: over/under for longest touchdown from scrimmage during regular season
• 67 percent chance that there will be at least one 500-yard passing game during the regular season (NO pays +190)
• 65 percent chance a team will lose 14 or more games (NO pays +180)
• 55 percent chance Peyton Manning will have more passing yards than Tom Brady
• 45 percent chance a team will win 14 or more games

Other Props

• 19 percent chance a player will gain 2,000 receiving yards on the season (YES pays +400)
• 23 percent chance a player will gain 2,000 rushing yards on the season (YES pays +300)
• 31 percent chance a quarterback will rush for 1,000 yards on the season (YES pays +200)
• $100 wins $2,000 if any team goes 16-0
• $100 wins $3,500 if any team goes 0-16
• $100 wins $4,000 if any team goes 19-0

First Head Coach Fired

• Rex Ryan: +150
• Dennis Allen: +300
• Leslie Frazier: +800
• Mike Munchak: +1,200
• Ron Rivera: +1,200
• Jason Garrett: +1,500
• Jim Schwartz: +1,500

MVP Odds

• Peyton Manning: 5/1
• Aaron Rodgers: 8/1
• Colin Kaepernick: 10/1
• Tom Brady: 10/1
• Drew Brees: 10/1
• Adrian Peterson: 12/1
• Matt Ryan: 15/1
• Robert Griffin III: 18/1
• Russell Wilson: 18/1
• Andrew Luck: 30/1

Early Super Bowl Line

• The NFC is favored by one point over the AFC.

RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) is the founder of Pregame.com. His ESPN radio show in Las Vegas can be heard weekdays at 10 a.m. PT.

Filed Under: Denver Broncos, Gambling, NFL, Peyton Manning, Rex Ryan, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks